J.P.Morgan Global Equity Research: International First To Market

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J.P.Morgan Global Equity Research: International First To Market

Global Equity Research

International First to Market 30 July 2026

Top Stories

Greggs and B&M (Borja Olcese), United Kingdom

Bears turning into Bulls? Better risk-reward in GRG vs BME

The inflection we talked about appears evident now. We see materially more positives than negatives in Greggs’ 1H26

results. First, GRG delivered well above consensus expectations on EBIT (+23% y/y, with margins +100bps y/y, and +9% vs

consensus) and PBT (+20% y/y, +4% vs consensus), also slightly ahead of our estimates. Second, GRG reiterated its FY26

profit outlook, which implies a relatively undemanding 2H, while also de-risking assumptions through lower cost inflation

guidance (c2% for FY26 vs c3% previously) and reduced capex expectations of c£180mn (vs £200mn previously). Third, GRG

remains in a net cash position and delivered y/y operating cash flow growth ahead of expectations, clearly flagging scope for

buybacks in due course. The main negative remains the pressured volume exit rate, with +1% LFL in 2P26 (implying c-1% to -

2% volumes). That said, management sounded notably constructive on July trading, helped by receding heatwaves, and

appeared more confident that LFLs can improve from here. This commentary alone drove roughly 500bps of incremental intra-

day share price movement.

AFL | Jeronimo Martins (Borja Olcese) (JMT PL, OW, PT €23.00), Portugal

Margin outperformance drives valuation & earnings upside risk

Margin outperformance drives valuation & earnings upside risk. JMT delivered Biedronka 2Q LFL contraction of -1.6%, in

line with expectations, while margins surprised to the upside: Biedronka margin increased over 40bps y/y (vs cons.

assumptions of flat), and group margins rose 20bps y/y (vs cons.