NOV Inc 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Synchronicity

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NOV Inc 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Synchronicity

4Q Adj. EBITDA - 27E ($ mn) 1,114 1,121 0.6%

period, NOV estimates its earnings capacity of roughly $9.8bn in annualized

revenue and ~$1.5bn in EBITDA, even though those peaks occurred amid Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

inflation, supply chain constraints, declining activity, and limited pricing power. Adj. EPS ($)

2Q Energy Equipment orders came in at $474mm for a book-to-bill below 1.0x at 2025A 2026E 2027E

Q1 0.22 0.15A 0.25

0.74x, and while management reiterated its expectation to approach 1.0x for the Q2 0.34 0.19A 0.34

full year, the company suggests that the full-year book-to-bill would likely trend Q3 0.26 0.25 0.37

in the 90% to 100% range for the full-year given geopolitical risks and commodity Q4 (0.00) 0.30 0.44

FY 0.82 0.89 1.40

price volatility. Additionally, 3Q26 Energy Equipment revenue is guided down 1%

to 3% YoY with EBITDA of $160-190mm as several production-equipment Style Exposure

projects neared completion in 2Q26. That said, management remains optimistic on

the company’s 2H26 order outlook, expecting EE order bookings to improve q/q

with FPSO-related tailwinds.

The offshore outlook remains upbeat, with subsea flexible pipe delivering a strong

quarter and a 2Q backlog 28% higher YoY led by North Sea projects, though the

business is now running up against capacity constraints with orders now reflecting

2028 deliveries ahead of additional capacity coming on in early 2029. Importantly,

we are seeing the shorter-cycle Energy Products and Services segment inflect, with

3Q26 revenue guided up 5% to 7% YoY, EBITDA of $130-150mm, and strong

~40% sequential incrementals (ex-tariff), driven by Grant Prideco’s best bookings

quarter since 1Q23, drill pipe backlog roughly doubling YoY, and fiberglass