Fiverr: Lowering Estimates on Softer Topline As Recent LLM Updates Pressure Marketplace Demand & Traffic; Multi-Year Transformation Has Execution Risk; Maintain Neutral, $11 PT

研报英文原文证据摘录

Fiverr: Lowering Estimates on Softer Topline As Recent LLM Updates Pressure Marketplace Demand & Traffic; Multi-Year Transformation Has Execution Risk; Maintain Neutral, $11 PT

Doug Anmuth AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-6571 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

douglas.anmuth@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Fiverr is a two-sided global online marketplace that changes

how people work together. Unlike hiring or staffing platforms,

Fiverr operates a transactional marketplace where freelancers’

services, or Gigs, are listed as products in a catalogue that buyers

can search, browse, and purchase. The freelancing market is

large, at $247B in the US alone, and still early in shifting online,

with the majority of freelancing work still done offline. Fiverr is

facing AI and macro headwinds and is undergoing a multi-year

transformation plan to move upmarket while deprioritizing low-

YTD 1m 3m 12m end transactions creating revenue volatility. We think Fiverr’s

Abs -41.4% 4.1% 11.9% -54.3% focus on AI and moving upmarket should remove some of the

Rel -60.4% 6.0% 4.7% -85.2%

SMB weakness, but the current transformation creates

Company Data significant execution risk.

Shares O/S (mn) 37

Valuation52-week range ($) 28.00-9.58

Market cap ($ mn) 423.71 Our Dec 2027 price target of $11 is based on ~8.0x 2028E Adj.

Exchange rate 1.00 EPS of $1.37, a discount to peers (Upwork, Recruit Holdings,

Free float (%) 82.4%

3M ADV (mn) 0.84 and Seek Limited) trading at ~14.5x‘28E Adj.EPS on lower

3M ADV ($ mn) 9.2 visibility of revenue getting back to growth amidst AI

Volatility (90 Day) 56 disruption.

Index RUSSELL 2000

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 3|7|0

Key Metrics (FYE Dec) Performance Drivers

$ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E FY28E