Tofas Fabrika: 2Q‘26 First Take - No surprises, PBT comfortably tracking guidance

研报英文原文证据摘录

Tofas Fabrika: 2Q‘26 First Take - No surprises, PBT comfortably tracking guidance

Hanzade Kilickiran AC CEEMEA Equity Research

(44 20) 7742 0014 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

hanzade.kilickiran@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Tofas Fabrika (Neutral; Price Target: TL327.60)

Investment Thesis

Tofas acquired Stellantis’s Türkiye distribution and re-aligned production capacity in 2025

& 2026, including new export production of “K-zero” and “K-9” for domestic market, all

planned for five different brands within the Stellantis group. This will position Türkiye as

one of the top five retail markets for Stellantis, whilst extended export production is

reinforcing Tofas’s position as a reliable core production hub for the group. Although the

outlook improves by next year thanks to sales shifting from imports to locally produced cars,

we find valuations fair and reflecting the potential changes. Further upside depends on the

launch of a new passenger car model, with more details expected in 2026; we will revisit

our rating and forecasts as production and capex plans are clarified.

Valuation

We value Tofas shares based on discounted cash flow that incorporates forecasts in 2026-

2034. Our DCF model assumes potential production shift to new models (150k capacity K0

and 100k capacity K9), and include Stellantis’s Türkiye distribution EBIT margin of 8% in

2024 and 9% afterwards. On cash flow valuation, we consider our USD forecasts which are

not adjusted for inflation and apply a WACC of 13.7% in USD terms and a terminal growth

rate of 3%.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Turkish market is key to operating at efficient CUR and high margins, hence represents the

main macro risk. The other important risks are the renewal of its export contracts under