US Rates; Deleveraging; First Glances - Erste, Soc Gen, Lloyds, CVC, ING, BBVA; AIBG; Fineco; SCOR, BCP; Amundi; LSEG

研报英文原文证据摘录

US Rates; Deleveraging; First Glances - Erste, Soc Gen, Lloyds, CVC, ING, BBVA; AIBG; Fineco; SCOR, BCP; Amundi; LSEG

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales - European Financials AC (44-20) 7134-0355 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com JPM | EU Financials: US Rates;

J.P. Morgan Securities plc Deleveraging; First Glances - Erste,

Soc Gen, Lloyds, CVC, ING, BBVA;

AIBG; Fineco; SCOR, BCP;

Amundi; LSEG

30 July 2026

Fed’s 2% PCE mandate, downplaying his commitment to 2% PCE inflation. Yesterday’s moves were highly unusual, and it’s been

rare to see an instance of twist steepening in the wake of an FOMC meeting as was observed today, only occurring in about ~20%

of instances over the past decade. We now expect the Fed to hike in December (versus 3Q27 previously – Michael Feroli here.

Given Warsh’s comments suggesting the balance sheet could be more in play alongside a reduced commitment to the 2% inflation

target, the risk points to further bearish steepening. Jay Barry’s thoughts here.

Flows Liquidity: Deleveraging likely behind us. Whilst a hugely busy day for earnings – degrossing in momentum strategies

has been more of an indicator of performance on the day for many European financials stocks than the numbers themselves. In

that regard an important note to flag - Two weeks ago in our Flows and Liquidty product, the strategy team had argued that the

deleveraging phase that started in June appeared to be still ongoing and saw room for further deleveraging by investors – really

marking the acceleration of the huge moves we’ve had in momentum strategies lead by Korea and semis stocks globally. Today,

the same team think that this deleveraging has advanced faster than we had anticipated. As a result, we now see more limited