JPM | EMEA Spec Sits Daily: ARCAD NA, IVG IM, Deleveraging largely behind us (flows & liquidity note)

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | EMEA Spec Sits Daily: ARCAD NA, IVG IM, Deleveraging largely behind us (flows & liquidity note)

Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

30 July 2026

• SGRO LN: H1 results. Segro reported EPRA NTA per share down 2.5 per cent to 902 pence (31 December 2025: 925

pence), consistent with the 905 pence proforma Adjusted NAV we announced in our H1 2026 Trading Update after adjusting

for profits, dividends and currency movements in the period. link

JPM Research

Macro

• Fed forecasts... That’s incredible!-Michael Feroli here

• The FOMC voted 9-3 to leave rates on hold, an outcome close to expectations. The statement was almost unchanged

relative to the June meeting. In Warsh’s press conference, he once again failed to specify how he intended to achieve his

stridently asserted inflation resolve. He also cast doubt on whether PCE inflation will remain the Fed’s inflation target in

the medium run. Both of these points raise questions about the new chair’s credibility in delivering lower inflation. We

believe this will add some urgency for the rest of the committee to act on its mandate. We are pulling forward our next

rate hike from 2H27 to December this year, with policy rates on hold at 3.75-4.0% thereafter. September is clearly a

risk if inflation heats up again soon. We wouldn’t characterize this revision as the market “pressuring” the Fed, but rather

another challenge prompting the Fed to act to maintain its credibility.

• Deleveraging likely behind us .. Flows & Liquidity - Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou here

• We find that investors deleveraging in the tech and semiconductor space, including memory stocks, has advanced faster

than we had previously anticipated. As a result, we now see more limited room for any further deleveraging.