Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield: Another positive endorsement for retail property: 1H26 First Take

研报英文原文证据摘录

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield: Another positive endorsement for retail property: 1H26 First Take

Neil Green, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4478 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

neil.d.green@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (Overweight; Price Target: €115.00)

Investment Thesis

Unibail is one of the world’s leading owners and developers of shopping centre destinations

across continental Europe, UK and the US. We rate the stock Overweight given: (1)

Valuation after recent pullback on macro concerns now looks much more attractive; (2) The

clarity on strategy revealed in 2025 around US assets but also the earnings outlook and

dividend policy; and (3) URW’s strategy of focusing on super prime malls in wealthy

catchments will likely see them as long-term winners within the sub-sector.

Valuation

Our Dec-27 price target for Unibail-Rodamco is based on our total returns-based European

Valuation Model, which takes into account whether a company creates or destroys value.

We argue that companies that have a positive spread between returns and their weighted

average cost of capital (WACC) should trade at a premium to NNAV, whereas those with

a negative spread should be priced below NNAV. We apply this spread to the invested

capital, discount back, and add/subtract to our NNAV forecast to derive our price target.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Upside risks include stronger-than-expected retail sales, better-than-expected economic

growth, a reversal in retail store closures and a disposal in the US at expectations ahead of

ours. Further downside risks include disappointing retail sales, a rise in vacancies in prime

shopping malls and falling values in continental Europe, the UK and/or the US. Downside