Aperam: Q2‘26 First Take: Q2 EBITDA in line, Q3 EBITDA guide implies downward revisions to Cons

研报英文原文证据摘录

Aperam: Q2‘26 First Take: Q2 EBITDA in line, Q3 EBITDA guide implies downward revisions to Cons

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

30 July 2026

Aperam Neutral

APAM.AS, APAM NA

Q2’26 First Take: Q2 EBITDA in line, Q3 EBITDA guide Price (29 Jul 26):€46.94

implies downward revisions to Cons Price Target (Dec-27):€46.10

Our Take: Q2 EBITDA in line, Q3 EBITDA guided lower: Q2 Adj. EBITDA European Metals, Mining & Steel

ACof €130m is +2% vs Con (€127m) and +8% vs JPMe (€120m). The beat was driven Dominic O'Kane

by stronger pricing vs JPMe & positive valuation effects. Alloys & Specialties (44-20) 7742-6729

remains weak on oil & gas, with Q2 EBITDA at €29m (-17% vs JPMe). Q3 dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

guidance points to lower Adj. EBITDA vs Q2, which is in line with normal J.P. Morgan Securities plc

seasonality, but slightly above Q1 (€90m). This is directionally consistent vs Patrick Jones

€125m BBG Cons but is lower vs JPMe €147m. APAM re-affirms its medium term (44-20) 7742-5964

patrick.jones@jpmorgan.com

€700-800m EBITDA run-rate target. Mgmt estimates ~€75/t margin improvement J.P. Morgan Securities plc

is already visible due to TRQ measures and suggest import level already

Varun Bhattad

significantly lower YoY before TRQ activation. Whilst European pricing (91-22) 6157-5027

development is favourable, underlying demand remains weak. Brazil is relatively varun.bhattad@jpmchase.com

resilient following holiday period. Aperam trades on 9.8x/7.2x2026E/27E EV/ J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

EBITDA (JPM base), 8%/6% FCF yield. We are Neutral rated. Rosie Jia

(44-20) 3493-7448

• Noteworthy Areas: Q2 EBITDA of €130m is in line vs company consensus rosie.jia@jpmorgan.com

€127m, +8% vs JPMe of €120m. 1) Divisionals are mixed: Stainless & J.P. Morgan Securities plc