London Stock Exchange PLC (LSEG.L): Lack of revenue upgrade may disappoint; guidance embeds conservatism for Tradeweb

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London Stock Exchange PLC (LSEG.L): Lack of revenue upgrade may disappoint; guidance embeds conservatism for Tradeweb

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30 Jul 2026 02:12:07 ET │ 11 pages

London Stock Exchange PLC (LSEG.L)

Lack of revenue upgrade may disappoint; guidance embeds

conservatism for Tradeweb

CITI'S TAKE Buy

Price (29 Jul 26 16:30) £91.98 We expect LSEG’s H1 results to be met with some disappointment.

Target price £129.00 Revenues are in line with company-compiled consensus, with the mix

likely to be viewed as modestly negative. Operating expenses are c1% Expected share price return 40.2%

below consensus after adjusting for H2 investment phase in, with EPS 3% Expected dividend yield 1.8%

above consensus. As consensus models 7.8% organic constant-currency Expected total return 42.1%

revenue growth in 2026, unchanged 7.0-7.5% guidance may disappoint. Market Cap £44,915M

However, LSEG’s guidance appears to embed H2 Tradeweb revenues that US$60,055M

are 5-10% below Visible Alpha consensus. EBITDA margin guidance is

upped from 80-100bp to c100bp, but consensus is already at this level.

We expect the shares may underperform slightly at the open.

Andrew Lowe, CFAAC

Unchanged 2026 revenue guidance may disappoint; EBITDA margin upgrade is in +44-20-7986-4042

line with consensus — LSEG has maintained guidance for 7.0-7.5% organic andrew.lowe@citi.com

constant-currency revenue growth in 2026, having upgraded this from 6.5-7.5% at Hannah Leivdal

Q1 results. This may be met with some disappointment, given that consensus hannah.leivdal@citi.com

models 7.8% growth. However, we estimate that LSEG’s guidance embeds a 5-10%

haircut to Tradeweb’s latest Visible Alpha consensus H2 revenue estimate. LSEG has Nicholas Herman

upgraded guidance for 2026 EBITDA margin expansion from 80-100bp to c100bp.