Inficon: Q2‘26 first take: Beat and raise but likely limited change to 2026 consensus

研报英文原文证据摘录

Inficon: Q2‘26 first take: Beat and raise but likely limited change to 2026 consensus

Craig A McDowell AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-4576 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

craig.mcdowell@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Inficon (Overweight; Price Target: CHF200.00)

Investment Thesis

Inficon is well positioned to benefit from higher wafer fabrication equipment (WFE)

spending in the medium term. Our analysis suggests that the company can deliver growth

at least in line with global WFE in the medium term, supported by existing design-in, broad

exposure across process steps, benign pricing and growing content. Primarily driven by

growth in the Semiconductor & Vacuum Coating division, our forecasts indicate that

Inficon Group can deliver a multi-year period of revenue and earnings growth with a

recovery in operating margins on restructuring, price and volume leverage.

Valuation

Our Dec’27 PT is set at 200 CHF (previously 155 CHF). We value Inficon on ‘28 EBIT,

applying a multiple of 22.0x (previously 21.0x; increased to reflect multiple expansion

across the space). Our selected multiple is a 33% discount to key Swiss-listed peer VAT

which is a ~15% premium to the broader sub-system supplier group (reflecting more reliable

growth, higher returns and a lower cost of capital).

Risks to Rating and Price Target

• Input cost rises: Inficon is subject to input cost increases, notably higher chip costs,

which had an impact on gross margins in 2022-2023; further, unmitigated increases in

input costs would have a negative impact on earnings forecasts.

• Competition in China: Inficon generates ~25% of revenue from China, and there is a

risk that local competition may rise to serve China’s growing domestic toolmakers and