Clear sky: upgrade to Overweight

研报英文原文证据摘录

Clear sky: upgrade to Overweight

IdeaMhas actually moderated since the peak of December 2025 ( Exhibit 8 ), creating an

entry point on a relative basis; we believe investors will be rewarded through

valuation roll-over from growth compounding. Our CHF 250 Bull Case assumes that

injectable aesthetics growth does not decelerate in the mid-term (vs. our Base Case

of single-digit growth from 2029), and Nemluvio reaches $7bn peak sales.

Valuation and risk-reward had previously prevented us from being Overweight,

but we now believe that Galderma has established a track record providing

better visibility on the outlook. Galderma has built a consistent track record with

growth delivery every year since 2021, despite multiple macro shocks and

headwinds over the period (inflation, interest rates increases, Russia/Ukraine

conflict, macro deceleration in China, consumer spending slowdown in the US, Iran/

US conflict, etc.). It appears clear that injectable aesthetics is more insulated from

macro trends than the broader beauty market, with the category benefiting from

exposure to higher income customers (playing into beneficiaries of the K economy),

high customer retention and increasing penetration. We expect Galderma's

injectable aesthetics franchise to continue to outpace the market through a

combination of market share gains in the US, geographic expansion and market

share gains ex-US, and launches of innovative products (Sculptra across

geographies, new Restylane product lines, Relfydess ex-US). While the re-filing and

approval of next-generation neuromodulator Relfydess in the US remains a point of

focus, Galderma has demonstrated its ability to drive above-market growth with its

existing neuromodulator franchise, and we believe the growth outlook is not overly