PCs and Servers: Read-through from Microsoft/Meta Jun-26 earnings

研报英文原文证据摘录

PCs and Servers: Read-through from Microsoft/Meta Jun-26 earnings

Albert Hung AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(886-2) 2725-9875 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

albert.hung@jpmchase.com

slightly below market consensus. Management has now guided 2026 total Capex

guidance to the range of US$130-145 bn (up ~90% YoY at the midpoint), narrowed from

their prior outlook of US$125-145 bn. This implies a strong Capex uptick in 2H26 (up

~70% HoH) and accelerating revenue momentum for Meta’s server supply chain.

• Meta targets to maximize compute capacity of 2026/ 2027 to grow their business in the

next few years given the supply constraints in the foreseeable future. However, the

company will maintain a flexible and fungible capacity strategy beyond 2028 to cope

with the demand uncertainty. For example, the company plans to build long-lived assets

ahead (i.e. land, power, facility) for the long-term demand but postpone the decision to

build short-lived assets given the uncertainty. The company will also adopt a modular

server design that can shift between AI and general workloads.

• Meta’s Sep-Q revenue guidance came in at US$61-64bn (+22% YoY at the midpoint), in

line with market expectations, likely driven by robust ad and agentic AI demand.

Management also sees substantial AI monetization opportunities across consumer,

enterprise, and infrastructure offerings, supported by improved engagement in core apps,

expansion of AI product offerings, growing enterprise demand for APIs, and potentially

selling compute directly. Robust core business growth, coupled with rising AI traction,

bodes well for the Capex sustainability, in our view.

J.P. Morgan views on the PC/server industry

• Robust MSFT/Meta’s CY26 Capex outlook indicates a strong 2H26 Capex uptick and