Australia Rates Insights

研报英文原文证据摘录

Australia Rates Insights

Global Markets Research

29 July 2026Australia Rates Insights

Rates - Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

CPI inflation undershoots. Australia/New Zealand Rates

Strategy

Too soon for the RBA to declare victory. Andrew Ticehurst - NAL

andrew.ticehurst@nomura.com

+61 2 8062 8611

• June and June quarter CPI inflation data were weaker than we and consensus

expected.

• We have become more confident in our long-standing base case – that the RBA rate

hike cycle is likely over – but do not expect it declare victory over high inflation.

• Today’s data have hurt our paid AU 3m1y versus US 3m1y position, and we will

reassess this position tomorrow, following the FOMC meeting, where we expect the

Fed to announce an unchanged fed funds rate.

The bottom line

Inflation was lower than we and consensus expected, in both June and the June

quarter. Q2 trimmed mean CPI inflation, at 0.8% q-o-q and 3.6% y-o-y, was also below the

RBA’s forecast from its May statement (3.8% y-o-y). However, we doubt it will be

especially surprised by today’s news, given that it will have examined April and May CPI

data, which were released in the interim.

The data add to our conviction that the RBA rate hike cycle is most likely over. We

made a call on 17March that the RBA would likely hike in May, and that this would be the

final rate hike in this cycle. The RBA did indeed hike in May, and our confidence in our

outlook has risen today.

However, we think the RBA is a long way from declaring victory over high inflation.

Annual inflation remains far too high, there were some troubling details within today’s

news (including a rise in services and non-tradables inflation) and there remains scope for

higher fuel prices to further pass through to other components of the CPI basket. The