Dutch Bros Inc: Outsized Growth Should Continue

研报英文原文证据摘录

Dutch Bros Inc: Outsized Growth Should Continue

efresher platform, operational

12/26E

improvements, Dutch Rewards (~74% transaction mix as of 1Q), paid media UBS Cons.

& marketing, and viral product / merch drops (ie Mystery Frog & Shoe Charms). Looking Q1 0.16 0.16

ahead, we anticipate BROS should maintain solid traffic-driven sales momentum despite Q2E 0.29 0.30

more difficult comparisons, given contribution from the food rollout (lift per store of 300 Q3E 0.26 0.25

bps from ticket & 100 bps from transactions) and other key plans, including: 1) menu Q4E 0.25 0.23

innovation; 2) mobile order; 3) marketing investments to build brand awareness; 12/26E 0.96 0.94

4) Dutch Rewards; and 5) opportunities to enhance operations and throughput. We 12/27E 1.29 1.26

model 5.0% 3Q system sss and 5.7% '26 sss. 12/28E 1.66 1.57

Dennis Geiger, CFA

Margin pressure to improve in '26 despite elevated coffee & food rollout costs Analyst

We model 29.2% 2Q shop margins (Cons. 29.8%) or -190 bps y/y, primarily reflecting: dennis.geiger@ubs.com

i) ~70 bps of occupancy & other costs (relative to targeted minimum 50 bps) given +1-212-713 9313

elevated occupancy costs due to the shift towards build-to-suit stores and modest repair Paul Hao

& maintenance investment; and ii) higher food costs associated with elevated coffee Associate Analyst

prices & the hot food rollout, iii) partially offset by sales leverage. We believe upside paul.hao@ubs.com

exists to FY26 guidance of ~60 bps pressure to COGS given coffee cost headwinds have +1-201-352 1091

been better than expected. For '26, we model adj EBITDA of $379.7MM (guidance Nikhil Gunderia

$370-380MM) on shop margins of 28.1% (down ~80 bps y/y), given sales leverage, Associate Analyst

offset by elevated COGS and occupancy & other costs.