Baxter International Inc: Should be fine, but will take time. Neutral at $25 PT.

研报英文原文证据摘录

Baxter International Inc: Should be fine, but will take time. Neutral at $25 PT.

orries, and BAX

has a lot of wood to chop, but we think that's well reflected in the stock today, with shares trading at

c. ~11.4x 2027 P/E, while leverage is now considerably more under control post the dividend cut.

Given the long path ahead to reducing the debt load and driving growth, we think the upside is

somewhat capped, but the current share price largely brackets the risk/reward evenly in our view.

EVIDENCE BAX’s -1% organic growth in 1Q26 was the weakest among peers, and FY26 guidance implies little

improvement. We view the weakness as structural, with underlying sales still declining after adjusting

for FX and transitional contracts. The ongoing NOVUM IQ LVP hold is also a meaningful overhang,

pressuring Infusion growth and risking long-term share loss. Combined with elevated leverage, a

delayed deleveraging timeline, and ongoing downgrade risk, we see limited near-term catalysts for

reacceleration or multiple expansion.

WHAT´S PRICED IN? Our reverse-DCF suggests the market sees BAX shares priced in at ~2-3% sales CAGR from ‘25-’30,

which we think is broadly right in the larger picture, with the Street sat at c. 2.4% and us in a similar

spot. Trading on high-single-digit EBITDA multiple and c. 11x P/E also suggests BAX is pricing in LSD

growth relative to the broader peer set.

Upside/Downside

Spectrum

Valuedrivers NTM P/E Multiple Sales CAGR ('25-'27E)

$30 upside ~14.5x ~1.2%

$25 base ~12.3x ~1.0%

$15 downside ~8x ~0.5%

Source: UBS estimates

Company Description Baxter (BAX) is a global medtech company supplying hospitals and healthcare providers with

products including IV pumps, infusion systems, surgical sealants, and pharmaceuticals. Its operations