Remy Cointreau: Off the call (Q1 27 sales): China exit rates, but US outlook complicated by RNDC bankruptcy

研报英文原文证据摘录

Remy Cointreau: Off the call (Q1 27 sales): China exit rates, but US outlook complicated by RNDC bankruptcy

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation -9.3%

Forecast dividend yield 1.5%

Forecast stock return -7.7%

Market return assumption 7.8%

Forecast excess return -15.5%

Company Description

Rémy Cointreau produces and distributes premium cognac and spirits. Its major brands

include Rémy Martin, Bruichladdich and The Botanist gin. By segment, cognac contributed

62% of sales and 85% of group profits in FY25 (year-end March). By region, APAC accounts

for 40% of sales, followed by the Americas (37%) and EMEA (23%). Remy is listed in France

and is part of the CAC40 and SBF120. The business is primarily controlled by the Hériard

Dubreuil family through its holding company, Andromède S.A. (or Orpar/Récopart), which

holds c58% of the shares and over 70% of voting rights; the remaining c40% is free float.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We value Rémy Cointreau based on 2027E 21x EV / NOPAT multiple, a premium to Staples.

Sector-specific risks: (1) consumer expenditure levels and the economic and political stability

in the countries of operation; (2) governmental and regulatory risk of excise duty increases, or

restrictions such as advertising or deposit laws over which the industry can exercise limited

influence; (3) weather in any given year due to the seasonality of consumption above all for

beer and soft drinks; (4) shifts in consumer trends between categories and substitution risk

from other competing products, namely wine and spirits; (5) competition and the impact on

returns from increased A&P and capital investment; (6) variability of input costs such as raw

materials (e.g. barley, malt, sugar and agave) and packaging materials (e.g. glass, aluminium,