Methanex: Straightening Up

研报英文原文证据摘录

Methanex: Straightening Up

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

29 July 2026

Methanex Neutral

MEOH, MEOH US

Straightening Up Price (29 Jul 26):$54.64

▼Price Target (Dec-27):$55.00

Prior (Dec-26):$65.00

Methanol prices have been moving lower. But most recently they ticked up with

the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Spot methanol prices in the US Gulf peaked Chemicals: Specialty, Commodity,

Agricultural, and Paper & Packagingat just under $600/t fob in late April. Prices moved their way lower to $430/t as the

Strait opened in early July. Methanol prices now have edged up to $450/t as the Jeffrey J. Zekauskas AC

Strait shut in again. We reduced our EBITDA expectations for Methanex for 2026 (1-212) 622-6644

jeffrey.zekauskas@jpmorgan.com

from $1.83b to $1.68b to reflect lower average realized prices following the

opening of the Strait and an increase in supply. We increased our EBITDA forecast Lydia Huang

(1-212) 622-0086

for Methanex for 2027 from $1.37b to $1.54b to reflect some discount to current lydia.huang@jpmorgan.com

price conditions. Our 2028 projection for Methanex EBITDA reflects our

Silke Kueck

expectation of normalized earnings of roughly $350/t for methanol. (1-212) 622-6503

silke.x.kueck@jpmorgan.com

• We rate Methanex Neutral. We expect the value of Methanex to move sharply Katie Zhang

lower with the opening of the Strait and to move somewhat higher with the

(1-212) 622-3262

Strait remaining closed. When the Strait briefly opened, the value of Methanex katie.zhang@jpmchase.com

shares retreated to $44/sh and oil fell to $70/bbl. We think that the intrinsic J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

value of Methanex could be close to $62/share or 5.5x normalized EBITDA of

$1b. A more conservative valuation is 5.0x or $55/share, which is where we