CLPC: trade winds from the East

研报英文原文证据摘录

CLPC: trade winds from the East

d) (A$)

share. These markets total ~RMB7tn in 2025 and are set to grow to RMB15-21tn by

From To % ch Cons.

2030E subject to further potential reforms. While Pillar 2 currently comprises the vast 12/26E 0.14 0.14 0 0.13

majority of current AUM, Pillar 3 is relatively new with negligible AUM set to grow 12/27E 0.16 0.16 1 0.14

towards RMB4-7tn by 2030E at higher fee margins. The 5 year AUM outlook of the 12/28E 0.17 0.18 0 0.15

combined Pillar 2 and 3 markets is ~15-25%pa, a structural tailwind for CLPC as the

largest player. Shreyas Patel, FIAA

Analyst

shreyas-k.patel@ubs.com

What multiple - high growth but low terminal value

+61-2-9324 2821

Over the last 10 years CLPC has grown AUM at 23%pa, with operating leverage driving

Kieren Chidgeyoperating profits to grow at a faster 35%pa. These are 'platform-like' characteristics

with further structural growth ahead which would ordinarily attract a premium multiple. kieren.chidgey@ubs.com

However, we are also cognisant of country risk considering a state-owned enterprise +61-2-9324 2820

major shareholder as JV partner. As such, we consider this a low terminal-multiple asset

Fraser Noye

on a 10 year view, though equally believe that the 5-10yr earnings growth outlook

needs to be valued appropriately. Our analysis suggests ~mid-teens PE can be justified, fraser.noye@ubs.com

valuing AMP's minority stake in CLPC at ~$1.8bn on 15x FY27E. +61-2-9324 3353

Valuation: Price target $2.55 (previously $2.19)

We revise EPS FY26E +0%, FY27 +1% reflecting stronger China profit contributions

partly offset by higher Bank costs. Our PT lifts to $2.55 (prev $2.19) based on our SOTP

where we roll-forward to FY27E and lift our China JV valuations to 15x PE implying

$1.9bn for CLPC/CLAMP (prev $1.4bn).