Orange 2Q26 keys: in all ways a positive quarter

研报英文原文证据摘录

Orange 2Q26 keys: in all ways a positive quarter

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16% growth in 1H EBITDAaL. As a whole, MEA saw 8% growth in mobile subs

and 7% growth in ARPO. The Orange Money base grew by 20% yoy to 52m

customers, 4G customers by +15% to 98m and FBB customers by 17% to 5.1m.

The upgrade to DD EBITDAaL growth comes from various markets outperforming

and is a result of successful monetisation of 4G investments allowing for 25%

growth in mobile data and enabling fintech adoption. As a reminder, Orange has

c18 month payback on capex in MEA and the region seems to be entering peak

rates of returns in that regard.

Rest of Europe: Top line was strong by both geography and function, with IT&IS

the standout in both Belgium and Poland. The latter then also performed strongly

in retail and we believe Poland continues to be an upside risk to consensus.

EBITDAaL-eCapex grew by c16% yoy in 1H26, contributing strongly to OCF and

being the reason for the organic guidance upgrade following the same by France

in 1Q26. As noted above, both Poland and Belgium upgraded their guidance

going into the Group results.

Orange Business: Revenues were -3.5% yoy, similar to 1Q. Cyberdefense

reported c11% revenue growth and c15% order intake following its launch in

Spain. A partnership with Tech Mahindra was closed. The outlook for EBITDAaL

trend improvement was confirmed despite macro pressures and 1H26

performance supports this.

Consolidation: Management confirmed that the 18-month regulatory review is

in line with expectations and that the assets Orange is set to acquire will have low

residual capex. In Consolidation Q&A and feedback in detail, in Figure 4, we

estimated exactly this in our synergy/FCF model. Orange is expecting a market

survey to be conducted in September/October as part of this process.