Global Tobacco US Nicotine Product Imports to June‘26

研报英文原文证据摘录

Global Tobacco US Nicotine Product Imports to June‘26

Global Research

28 July 2026ab

Global Tobacco Equities

GlobalUS Nicotine Product Imports to June'26

Tobacco

Faham Baig

US vape, nicotine pouch and cigarette shipments/imports tracker Analyst

As the US nicotine landscape evolves, with an increasing number of products and faham.baig@ubs.com

uncertain regulatory enforcement, imports/exports data provide additional insights, +44-20-7568 3966

particularly into grey-market products. We use FDA Imports Entry Data to monitor vape, Emily Teo

nicotine pouch and cigarette shipments to the US. Whilst shipment tracking captures Associate Analyst

the number of import transactions – without distinguishing the quantity within each emily-s.teo@ubs.com

shipment – we supplement this with import data from the US International Trade +44-20-7567 1002

Commission (USITC), which provides volumes in units/kilograms. US accounts for 100%

of Altria's FY25E EBIT; 58% of BAT; 31% of IMB; c8% of JT; c7% of PMI. Most cigarettes

and nicotine pouches are locally produced in the US, whereas vapes are imported.

Cigarette shipments grew +52% in June'26 (+48% in May); 6mma +56%

Shipments containing cigarettes to the US increased +52% in June'26, vs +48%/+8%/

+79% in May/April/Mar. Using a six-month moving average, shipments grew +56% in

June, vs +57%/+62%/+76% in May/April/Mar. This was driven by shipments from

Mexico (largely BAT, according to the data), and the Dominican Republic (likely includes

Altria, in our view). According to USITC, cigarette imports increased +99%/+120%/

+37% in May/Apr/Mar, including 1.2/1.1/0.6bn cigarettes from Mexico, and

0.7/0.6/0.7bn from the Dominican Republic. We believe the rise in cigarette imports

reflects the industry taking advantage of duty drawbacks.