Re-accelerating capex to capture LT AI upside

研报英文原文证据摘录

Re-accelerating capex to capture LT AI upside

From To % ch Cons.

meaningful in 2027. We forecast UMC's blended ASP to increase 15%/15% in 12/26E 4.66 7.71 65 4.70

2027/28E, which could support GM to increase to 39.2%/44.3% during the same 12/27E 6.73 7.93 18 5.99

period from 33.6% in 2026E even with higher depreciation. 12/28E 11.52 11.95 4 7.89

Competitive SiPh and advanced packaging offering Sunny Lin

Analyst

On SiPh, UMC offers two solutions including 1) the industry's 1st 12" platform by sunny.lin@ubs.com

collaborating with imec, offering stronger performance, process control and yield than +886-2-8722 7346

competitors' 8" solutions. 2) TFLN on 8" for modulator, ideal for 400G/lane and beyond.

Ryan SunUMC could integrate both solutions for different optical components through

Associate Analyst

packaging. On advanced packaging, UMC sees the TAM more than doubling by 2030 ryan-za.sun@ubs.com

mainly led by opportunities for deep trench capacitors (DTC). +886-2-8722 7267

Christine Chen, CFA

Valuation: maintain Buy and PT of NT$230, based on 23x average 2027-28E PE

We raise 2026/27E EPS by 65%/18% to factor in higher Q2 earnings partly from non op christine.chen@ubs.com

gain, and a stronger mature foundry cyclical outlook. The stock has pulled back 43% +886-2-8722 7361

from its recent peak to 13x 2027E PE; we believe the correction is overdone and offers a

more attractive entry point for 27% earnings CAGR in 2027-30E. Maintain Buy and

price target of NT$230, based on 23x 2027-28E PE (down from 25x, reflecting broader

recent market deleveraging).

Highlights (NT$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 222,533 232,303 237,553 287,215 375,047 474,392 539,127 596,120

EBIT (UBS) 57,891 51,613 43,949 66,841 110,617 168,298 199,807 224,898