US Economic Data: July Nowcasts: ISM Manufacturing expected to reach 54

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US Economic Data: July Nowcasts: ISM Manufacturing expected to reach 54

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US Economic Data Economics

AmericasJuly Nowcasts: ISM Manufacturing expected to

reach 54 Ashley Musfeldt

Strategist

ashley.musfeldt@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 6041

Artour Danilov

artour.danilov@ubs.com

UBS Evidence Lab Nowcasts provide an early read on June indicators

+44-20-7567 5203

UBS Evidence Lab Nowcasts provide timely projections of several key monthly US

Amanda Wilcox

economic indicators ahead of the official releases and other forecasts. Non-traditional

Economist

big data is used to generate the Nowcasts using available data before the end of the amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

month. These Nowcasts differ from the data forecasts published by the US Economics +1-212-713 3899

team, whose projections use a separate methodology and often incorporate additional

data. The July Nowcasts are shown in Figure 1. Links to the real-time history of the

model-generated Nowcasts are below to allow clients to back-test and assess the signal.

UBS Evidence Lab Nowcast points to continued strength in Auto Sales

UBS Evidence Lab’s latest Nowcast suggests that retail spending, excluding autos and

gasoline, will increase by 0.14% month-over-month in July, moderating from the

previous month’s 0.43% gain. Core CPI in the Nowcast is expected to rise by 18 basis

points, below the US Economics team’s estimate of 27 bps (link here). Within the

underlying components, rent is projected to increase by 20 bps, while lodging prices are

expected to rise by 146 bps. New vehicle prices are forecast to decline by 20 bps, and

energy CPI is anticipated to decrease by 216 bps in the Nowcast. Overall, the UBS