Emerging Markets Equity Strategy: EM Drawdown - A Normal Part of the Cycle

研报英文原文证据摘录

Emerging Markets Equity Strategy: EM Drawdown - A Normal Part of the Cycle

growth forecasts are (44-20) 7134-5887

higher than US/DM, and EM revisions have been more positive than those across david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com

the broader DM complex. We remain overweight EM equities in our global J.P. Morgan Securities plc

allocations and maintain our 12-month base-case MXEF target of 2000. At the Asia Equity & Quantitative Strategy

stock level, we note that the companies shown in Table 4EMstockscren:oversoldMomentumstocks are exposed to the Mixo Das

oversold Momentum theme. Further, we recommend a bucket of laggards (Table (852) 2800-0511

5EMstockscren:lagardslikelytobenefitfromrotation) likely to benefit from continued market broadening/rotation, and Quality- mixo.das@jpmorgan.com

Growth stocks (Table 6EMQuality-Growthstocks), which should outperform unless recession risk rises J.P.MorganMorganBrokingSecurities(Hong (AsiaKong)Pacific)LimitedLimited/ J.P.

materially.

• The correction in EM equities since the peak on 22 June 2026 has delivered

an aggregate decline of ~15% (at the time of writing). This risk-off shift has

hit the biggest and most crowded parts of EM, especially in Asia tech where a

sharp reversal in AI/semiconductor stocks in South Korea and Taiwan has

followed outsized rallies earlier in the year. In Korea, leveraged ETF

positioning and related flow dynamics appear to have amplified the drawdown

and day-to-day volatility, and in recent days increasingly has the hallmarks of

hedge fund positioning unwind. A re-escalation of the Middle East conflict,

which is again pressuring energy prices, has also seen renewed sell-offs in most

energy-dependent markets. Consequentially, the markets that have sold off the