Risk Reward Update: Liberty Global | Europe

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update: Liberty Global | Europe

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Liberty Global (LBTYA.O)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Revenue Growth (%) (0.8) (2.0) 1.4 1.7

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Deal integration in the UK RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Revenue trajectory: driven mainly by Lower competitive pressure, FMC and product

competition levels, FMC and product investments driving revenue ahead of Sales /

development expectations Revenue 4,779 5,187

Strategic optionality in both scaled and sub- Execution on deal synergies ahead of (US$, mn) 5,074

scaled assets expectations

Capex trajectory as incumbents are pushing fibre FX: shares trade in USD, but EBITDA mainly

investments generated in EUR/GBP EBITDA

1,328 1,393

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (US$, mn)

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE 1,360 Increased competition in key markets driving

revenue below expectations

(1.54)

Increased capex with associated low return EPS 40-50% UK (2.45) (0.56) FX: shares trade in USD, but EBITDA mainly (US$) 50-60% Europe ex UK (1.49) generated in EUR/GBP

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Inst. Owners, % Active 69.6%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.6x

HF Sector Net Exposure 12.3%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure).

Morgan Stanley Research 3