Johnson Controls International plc (JCI.N): Solid Demand Trends and Continued Execution Should Support EPS Growth Potential

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Johnson Controls International plc (JCI.N): Solid Demand Trends and Continued Execution Should Support EPS Growth Potential

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29 Jul 2026 18:50:24 ET │ 13 pages

Johnson Controls International plc (JCI.N)

Solid Demand Trends and Continued Execution Should Support EPS

Growth Potential

CITI'S TAKE Neutral

Price (29 Jul 26 16:00) US$139.42 We think underlying demand trends across JCI’s core HVAC end markets

Target price US$157.00↑ remain solid (27% order growth; $21bn backlog), which should support

topline visibility into FY27. While data centers remain a key driver of from US$155.00

orders/backlog/revenue growth, we are also encouraged by inflecting Expected share price return 12.6%

demand activity across other critical HVAC end markets (including Expected dividend yield 1.1%

advanced manufacturing), which coupled with JCI’s innovative product Expected total return 13.8%

offerings as well as improving commercial execution (improving on-time- Market Cap US$85,062M

delivery) should support solid growth potential. While relatively softer

activity/geopolitical concern in EMEA region as well as trends across F&S

remain near-term “watch items,” we view encouraging trends in Americas

region and applied HVAC end market as well as some inflection in Service Andrew KaplowitzAC

as contributors to healthy topline growth. We think operational execution +1-212-816-0642

continues to improve (JCI appears to have an elongated “self-help” andrew.kaplowitz@citi.com

runway) and that along with healthy topline growth, should position JCI to

deliver strong operating leverage/double-digit EPS growth in

FY26/beyond.

Changes to our model/TP — Following JCI’s FY3Q26 results and increased FY26

guidance, we raise our FY26/FY27 EPS estimates to $5.05/$5.80 (from

$4.90/$5.55).