Constellium 2Q Results: Solid Beat and Full Year Guidance Raised on Solid Execution, Improved Market Environment and Scrap Benefits

研报英文原文证据摘录

Constellium 2Q Results: Solid Beat and Full Year Guidance Raised on Solid Execution, Improved Market Environment and Scrap Benefits

Bill Peterson AC North America Equity Research

(1-415) 315-6766 29 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

bill.peterson@jpmchase.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We rate shares of Constellium Neutral with a $34/share Dec-

2026 price target. We feel the company’s end market exposure,

solid pricing power, and margin-focused investments should

support incremental EBITDA growth and improved FCF

generation in CY26 and into CY27. However, CY27 growth is

likely to be partly offset by scrap spread compression and less

benefit from CY26’s opportunistic ABS share gains. We also

note near-term demand remains challenged across certain end

markets in both the US/EU (ex packaging), and the timing of the

YTD 1m 3m 12m commercial aero recovery remains fluid. Absent execution

Abs 46.6% -11.3% -14.3% 88.2% mishap, we like the company’s bite-sized growth projects,

Rel 27.6% -9.4% -22.1% 56.5%

steady buybacks, and improved net leverage, all of which we

Company Data feel can help close the valuation gap with peer KALU over time.

Shares O/S (mn) 140

Valuation52-week range ($) 36.99-13.04

Market cap ($ mn) 3,872.46 For our valuation, we use a 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple based

Exchange rate 1.00 on our estimates to arrive at a firm value. We then adjust for

Free float (%) 97.2%

3M ADV (mn) 2.11 balance sheet items, including minority interest and

3M ADV ($ mn) 67.9 underfunded pension /OPEB, to arrive at an equity valuation and

Volatility (90 Day) 52 our Dec-2026 price target of $34/share. For Constellium, we use

Index RUSSELL 2000

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 4|1|0 a forward 6.5x EV/EBITDA multiple, which is a premium to its