J.P.Morgan Asia Pacific Equity Research Taiwan First To Market

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P.Morgan Asia Pacific Equity Research Taiwan First To Market

Gokul Hariharan AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(852) 2800-8564 30 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

UMC’s 2Q26 recurring earnings and 3Q26 guidance were modestly better than expectations, helped by better utilization and a

slight increase in blended pricing. UMC is likely to see GMs improving to the high 30% range by end 2026/early 2027, due to

modest price increases and utilization improvement. However, GM improvement is likely to be tempered in 2027/28 by its new

capex plan (2026 capex up to $2bn, and $5bn investment plan approved for SG and TW fab expansion in the next 2-3 years),

which should drive depreciation higher. AI exposure for UMC remains quite small ($300mn or 3% of revenues in 2026, growing

to $1bn in 3 years), and the sustainability of high utilization while consumer electronics customers are facing demand

challenges remains a key question in 4Q26 and 1H27. We adjust our 2026/27 OP estimates by 10%/4% and stay Neutral on

the stock, with a Jun-27 PT of NT$130 (based on 18x 12M forward P/E). Key upside risk is strong demand for its photonics or

advanced packaging solutions, both areas where UMC is a latecomer, while key downside risk is order cuts from consumer

electronics fabless customers after some degree of rush orders through 9M26.

YAGEO (Jerry Tsai) (2327 TT, OW) - 29 July 2026

Positive outlook didn’t break

Our view on the 3Q guidance. While YAGEO delivered strong 2Q rev growth and decent margins (see below) in 2Q, the 3Q

rev outlook of “moderate growth” (which we believe means ~5% up sequentially) was meaningfully below the street

expectations of 11-12% rev growth q-o-q. Interestingly, YAGEO suggests that the 3Q UTR will rise to the 90-95% level for both