Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora (EDN.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Net Regulatory Asset Base - RAB

3,373 3,504 3,610 3,713

(US$, mm)

Outperformance to distribution Reg.

(56) (44) (39) (41)

EBITDA (%)

Total distribution capex per

1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8

Regulatory D&A

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Proper application and potential changes in the RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

regulatory framework Positive regulatory developments

FX evolution Regulatory claim regarding historical frozen 0.23

Operating performance tariffs EPS Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

Macroeconomic developments Better-than-expected operating performance (US$) consensus data for this metric

Macroeconomic improvement

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Deterioration of the regulatory framework 366 EBITDA

Worse-than-expected operating performance (US$, mm) Note: There are not sufficient brokers supplying

100% Latin America Delays to implement tariff hikes consensus data for this metric

Macroeconomic deterioration

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

Inst. Owners, % Active 68.9%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

HF Sector Net Exposure 1.9%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure).

Morgan Stanley Research 3