Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – GTT (GTT.PA)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

New orders 64 113 102 88

Order backlog 336 338 342 331

Licensing revenues (%) 92 89 88 89

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

LNG demand growth and global flows RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

GTT's superior technology on gas containment An acceleration of order intake in the coming 526 membranes quarters EBITDA

Stable margins and commitment to shareholder A scarcity of other pure names to play the LNG (€, mn) 490 530

returns market 516

Indications that new investments on smart

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE shipping are playing out well EPS 11.53

10.07 12.14 RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (€)

0-10% Japan 11.40

Order intake for new LNGCs decelerates

20-30% Mainland China

Competing technologies take market share

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 429 70-80% from GTT in the membrane market China and India Net income

Diversification into other avenues of growth 374 448 (€, mn)

proves more difficult than initially anticipated 422

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 9.26

DPS

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 79.3% (€) 8.05 9.69

9.17

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x

3/5 3 Month

MOST Horizon HF Sector Net Exposure 3% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Quintile inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a