Vistra: Thoughts into 2Q26: East and Texas Drive YoY Growth; Regulatory and Contracting Commentary In Focus

研报英文原文证据摘录

Vistra: Thoughts into 2Q26: East and Texas Drive YoY Growth; Regulatory and Contracting Commentary In Focus

Jeremy Tonet, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-4915 29 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

With roughly half of its gas generation in ERCOT, VST carries

the highest exposure to the TX power demand backdrop and

possesses strong optionality to benefit from 1) any intra-day

spikes in power prices and 2) an uplift in base load demand.

Additionally, we highlight Vistra’s large-scale integrated retail

business, comprehensive hedging program, and increased

nuclear PTC exposure via the Energy Harbor acquisition all

serve to reduce earnings volatility and downside, plus support

double-digit EBITDA growth. We see ramp on existing PPAs

YTD 1m 3m 12m with hyperscalers over the coming years high grading cash flows

Abs -7.9% -9.1% -7.8% -24.1% and improving earnings visibility, with additional contracting

Rel -16.4% -10.1% -11.8% -40.4%

opportunities offering further upside. Moreover, VST’s recent

Company Data Lotus and Cogentrix acquisitions enhance scale and market

Shares O/S (mn) 338 share within attractive markets at a nicely accretive price. VST

52-week range ($) 219.82-132.66 carries additional optionality should demand emerge for long-

Market cap ($ mn) 50,214.09

Exchange rate 1.00 term gas contracts.

Free float (%) 99.0%

Valuation3M ADV (mn) 4.77

3M ADV ($ mn) 737.6 We establish a Dec 2027 price target of $231/share based on a

Volatility (90 Day) 50 blended 10x EV/EBITDA multiple. This reflects firm, capacity,

Index S&P 500

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 22|0|0 and spot multiples of 14.0x, 9.0x, and 8.5x, respectively, applied

to the JPMe business mix breakdown.