2Q KPIs: Global Gas & LNG

研报英文原文证据摘录

2Q KPIs: Global Gas & LNG

IdeaMValuation Methodology and Risks

Cheniere Energy Partners LP (CQP.N)

Derived from our base case DDM using a 5.7% WACC.

Risks to Upside

n Additional expansion at the Sabine Pass site

Risks to Downside

n Construction cost escalation could negatively affect project returns and create addi-

tional capital requirement

n Global liquefied natural gas markets no longer support North American exports

Excelerate Energy Inc (EE.N)

Model uses sum-of-the-parts-based DCF valuation of its FSRU operations with market risk

premiums specific to countries in which the company operates. Assumes 40-year useful life

of assets with 11% WACC.

n Negotiating contracts on growth projects and reaching FID

n Identification of growth projects beyond current pipeline

n Continued growth of global gas and LNG demand in key markets

n Potential LNG demand destruction from high commodity prices

n Securing gas supply for growth projects and downstream customers

Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG.N)

Valuation is based on a SOTP DCF valuation that includes a) cash flows from existing contracts

on Cheniere's base platform including Stage 3, b) CCL Midscale Trains 8 & 9, c) more expansion

at SPL and CCL, and d) long-term SPA contracts securing run-rate cash flows. We estimate the

fair value of $308/sh assuming a 7.5% blended cost of equity.

n High LNG prices improve CMI margins

n Increased contracting decreases commodity exposure

n Additional Trains reach FID

n Low LNG prices impact uncontracted volumes

n Failure to sign additional offtake contracts limits expansion potential

n Earlier commencement to debt repayments could limit free cash flow

NextDecade Corporation (NEXT.O)

Derived from our sum of the parts DCF, giving 100% value to a 3 Train facility with 20.8%

Morgan Stanley Research 3