J.P. Morgan Australia Mid-Year Prospects: AUSTRALIA FIRST TO MARKET

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J.P. Morgan Australia Mid-Year Prospects: AUSTRALIA FIRST TO MARKET

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia First to Market 30 July 2026

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Mid-Year Prospects (Andrew Triggs)

Banks

This report forms part of the J.P. Morgan Australia Mid-Year Prospects series as we take stock at the mid-point of 2026 and set

out our Top Pick and Least Preferred stock for the remainder of the year.

Rio Tinto Limited (Lyndon Fagan) (RIO AU, OW)

Strong 1H26 results, with productivity gains the key focus; retain OW

Key takeaways : 1) Underlying 1H26 EBITDA of $14.8bn was in line with JPMe and consensus; while NPAT of $6.9bn was

ahead of consensus, leading to a slightly better DPS of $2.11ps under the standard 1H 50% payout; ND of $14bn was also ~

$1bn below the street; 2) RIO has outlined $870m of productivity gains in 1H (~$400m from iron ore), with an expected run rate

of $1.8bn by the end of the year – while this is an impressive number we believe it is largely captured in our divisional estimates

already; and 3) there were no major project updates, with the copper strategy looking at a life extension at KUC (from 2032 to

2040), and further drilling at Resolution to inform the final mine design. After updating our model, our earnings are down 4% for

2026E on slightly lower EBITDA and higher D&A, partly offset by a lower guided ETR of 25% for the year. We retain our OW

rating, with the stock trading on a P/NPV of 0.81x and 2027 EV/EBITDA of 5.6x.

Northern Star Resources Ltd. (Jonathon Sharp) (NST AU, N)

June Q26: In-line quarter; KCGM commissioning underway, FY27 guidance the real event

Key takeaways: 1) JunQ sales of 433koz were pre-reported on 2 July; today’s incremental detail was gold recovered of 436koz,

a realised price of A$5,041/oz and AISC of A$2,651/oz, 6% below JPMe.