Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Ariston Holding NV (ARIS.MI)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Organic local currency growth (%) 3.0 4.0 3.1 2.9

Total sales growth (%) 3.9 12.6 10.0 2.9

Reported EBIT margin (%) 6.6 6.4 7.4 7.3

Dividend payout (%) 27.8 33.0 33.0 33.0

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Replacement need of the installed heating stock RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Tailwind: accelerated energy renovation for A sustained meaningful recovery in new‑build

higher efficiency and renewable heating residential activity. Sales /

products A more supportive policy backdrop, with Revenue 2,844 3,355

Headwind: Installer skills and the existing increased European and US subsidies and (€, mn) 3,205

building set-up tighter building regulations, shifting demand to

higher value heat pump products.

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 371 457

(€, mn)

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland A sharp slowdown in new‑build residential 400 0-10% China and India demand driven by adverse macroeconomic

0-10% India conditions.

0-10% Latin America Poor capital allocation, including value‑dilutive EBIT 248

0-10% MEA M&A. (€, mn) 229 260

0-10% Mainland China 243

0-10% North America

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 60-70% Europe ex UK 0.42

EPSSource: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 81.2% 0.35 0.45

(€)

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 3.1x 0.40

HF Sector Net Exposure 34.7%

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure.