UMC: GMs and utilizations trending slightly better, but likely capped long-term by new capex plan; Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

UMC: GMs and utilizations trending slightly better, but likely capped long-term by new capex plan; Neutral

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

30 July 2026

UMC Neutral

2303.TW, 2303 TT

GMs and utilizations trending slightly better, but likely Price (29 Jul 26):NT$102.50

capped long-term by new capex plan; Neutral ▼Price Target (Jun-27):NT$130.00 Prior (Jun-27):NT$140.00

UMC’s 2Q26 recurring earnings and 3Q26 guidance were modestly better than

expectations, helped by better utilization and a slight increase in blended pricing. Technology and Telecoms

UMC is likely to see GMs improving to the high 30% range by end 2026/early Gokul Hariharan AC

2027, due to modest price increases and utilization improvement. However, GM (852) 2800-8564

improvement is likely to be tempered in 2027/28 by its new capex plan (2026 capex gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

up to $2bn, and $5bn investment plan approved for SG and TW fab expansion in Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

the next 2-3 years), which should drive depreciation higher. AI exposure for UMC Jennifer Hsieh

remains quite small ($300mn or 3% of revenues in 2026, growing to $1bn in 3 (886-2) 2725-9868

years), and the sustainability of high utilization while consumer electronics jennifer.hsieh@jpmorgan.com

customers are facing demand challenges remains a key question in 4Q26 and J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited

1H27. We adjust our 2026/27 OP estimates by 10%/4% and stay Neutral on the David Chou

stock, with a Jun-27 PT of NT$130 (based on 18x 12M forward P/E). Key upside (886-2) 2725-9618

david.chou@jpmorgan.com

risk is strong demand for its photonics or advanced packaging solutions, both areas J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited