Danone: Model update: raise EPS 26E c2%, with FY organic sales and margin well underpinned

研报英文原文证据摘录

Danone: Model update: raise EPS 26E c2%, with FY organic sales and margin well underpinned

Celine Pannuti, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-7123 29 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

celine.pannuti@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We see Danone as a medium-term turnaround company, with

reinvestments and strategy announced by management to seize

the opportunity in categories under-appreciated by the market.

Medium term, we see potential in Danone’s end markets (we see

~60% of its sales in solid growth areas) led by probiotics, plant-

based, protein, premium Waters, and medical nutrition, and

improved market share with reinvestments and execution-focus

as well as portfolio management. Meanwhile, margins should

improve moderately in the medium term. Near term, we see

YTD 1m 3m 12m evidence building of turnaround progress to drive volumes

Abs -5.9% 0.2% 7.2% 9.8% improvement with a volume/mix driven 2026E top-line

Rel -15.3% -1.4% 0.1% -8.3%

delivery, aided by strong growth in high-protein dairy, solid

Company Data probiotics, Medical Nutrition, and China SN. With consistency

Shares O/S (mn) 646 of top-line delivery building, and likely to increasingly show in

52-week range (€) 80.14-60.64 EPS growth (with BS and FCF strength providing optionality for

Market cap ($ mn) 53,152.23

Exchange rate 0.88 M&A or cash returns) we also see further valuation upside. The

Free float (%) 94.8% stock is on our Analyst Focus List.

3M ADV (mn) 1.65

3M ADV ($ mn) 124.9 Valuation

Volatility (90 Day) 24 Our SOTP valuation drives our Dec-27 target price of €90.

Index MSCI Europe

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 16|5|3

Key Metrics (FYE Dec) Performance Drivers

€ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 27,284 28,247 29,385