Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

L '26 JUL '27

Risk Reward Themes

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Renewable Energy: Positive

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, Secular Growth: Positive

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 28

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes hereJul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE €90.00 BASE CASE €75.00 BEAR CASE €46.00

Back on track Further re-rating potential ahead Renewed concerns on investment plans

Our bull case assumes RWE re-rates to 9.4x We value each business division separately We value Amprion at 2025 equity carrying

EV/EBITDA and 26x P/E on 2027 numbers as through a DCF with business-specific value plus deal transaction. We envisage a

the market values future growth up to & WACCs. We value Amprion at net equity bear case whereby the market continues to

beyond 2031 guide, 6GW new German CCGT value with a 4% WACC, implying a 49% discount no future growth in Renewables

through 2030s & all 3GW of data centre premium to 2027 RAB . We value beyond those operating and haircuts

site pipeline. We also assume an early coal Renewables targets to 2030 & 3GW new offshore under construction by 50% given

exit in 2026-27, either via lignite foundation German CCGTs. We apply a 6.8% WACC to market concerns on renewables execution &

or plants not running due to negative lignite Offshore & 6.5% for Onshore Renewables, value creation. We assume only 1/2 value of

spreads.