EM Sovereign Supply Technicals: Busier than average July

研报英文原文证据摘录

EM Sovereign Supply Technicals: Busier than average July

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

29 July 2026

EM Sovereign Supply Technicals

Busier than average July

• July continued to be a busy month for primary markets. The strong activity Emerging Markets Strategy

AC from the first half of the year spilled over into July as well, with $18.6bn of Fariha R Ahmmed

issuance this month (10y average: $9.8bn), despite the Middle East tensions (44-20) 7134-8537

brewing again. YTD issuance stands at $187.2bn versus $163.7bn this time last fariha.ahmmed@jpmorgan.com

year. We forecast the overall 2026 issuance to be at $255.9bn, which is $10bn Nishant M Poojary, CFA AC

less than last year’s total. Last year saw close to 40% of the annual supply in (44 20) 3493-3859

the last five months of the year, compared to ~25-30% historically. We expect nishant.m.poojary@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

the pace to revert back to the historical levels this year. The YTD IG vs HY

breakdown sits at $132.5bn and $54.7bn, respectively.

• July saw the lowest monthly EM HY issuance for the year. The primary Cumulative gross issuance by month

market activity was dominated by the IG issuers, with only Trinidad & Tobago $bn 2020 2021 2022 2023

($0.8bn) and Honduras ($0.8bn) issuing on the HY side (July MTD IG: 250 2024 2025 2026

$17.0bn vs HY: $1.6bn). On the IG side, Kuwait issued 3 bonds at a total

amount of $6bn, while Malaysia came to the market with Sukuk bonds for the 200 187.2

first time since 2021. 150

100• We expect the supply activity to slow down in August in line with the

historical trend of a quiet summer. The primary market activity usually

declines over the summer, with August generally being the lowest issuance 50

month of the year (10y average: $2.8bn).