Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS.AX)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

Total Sales (MMboe) 212.2 198.1 202.3 204.3 H2 2026 @H2Perth first hydrogen

Brent oil assumption (US$/bbl) 68 89 72 70 25 Aug 2026 Half Year 2026 Woodside Energy Group Ltd Earnings Release

FX rate (A$/US$) 0.65 0.70 0.70 0.70 Q4 2026 Chevron asset swap

21 Oct 2026 3Q 2026 quarterly

05 Nov 2026 Capital Markets Day 2026

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Balance sheet flexibility to fund growth and RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

prepare for the energy transition Leverage to LNG theme

High leverage to Brent oil, condensate, and LNG Undeveloped discoveries, e.g., Browse, Sunrise Sales /

prices, and A$/US$ exchange rate Scarborough momentum, Louisiana sell-downs Revenue 13,772 15,520

Monetization of large gas resources Upgrades to reserves/resources (US$, mn) 14,700

Potential for capital management Higher oil and LNG prices

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 10,503

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE EBITDA

Weakness in LNG markets or oil prices 9,046 11,002

(US$, mn)

Project delay and/or cost overrun, e.g., 9,957 10-20% MEA

litigation

10-20% North America

Downgrades to reserves/resources

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland 1.83 60-70% China and India Policy intervention, e.g., export controls, EPS 1.52 2.24

secondary approval conditions, tax change (US$)

1.79

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

1.46

DPS Inst. Owners, % Active 40.3% 1.22 1.79

MS ALPHA MODELS (US$)

1.43 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

4/5 3 Month

MOST Horizon Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research