Smurfit WestRock: Q2‘26 earnings: While FY‘27 consensus estimates appear to be underpinned by H2‘26 run rate, we expect a negative reaction as Q3‘26 and FY‘26 guidance falls short of expectations

研报英文原文证据摘录

Smurfit WestRock: Q2‘26 earnings: While FY‘27 consensus estimates appear to be underpinned by H2‘26 run rate, we expect a negative reaction as Q3‘26 and FY‘26 guidance falls short of expectations

Detlef Winckelmann AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 3493-5190 29 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

detlef.winckelmann@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Smurfit WestRock (Overweight; Price Target: $71.00)

Investment Thesis

From a cyclical standpoint, we think the US corrugated packaging market is in the early

stages of a pricing upcycle, mainly due to producers looking at capital more critically and

closing down aging and capex-consuming mill capacity. While demand has been a

headwind with shipments back to 2015/2016 levels, we see this as cyclical, not structural,

whereas capacity closures are more structural than cyclical. Beyond this, Smurfit WestRock

is in the process of addressing the poor operational performance of legacy WestRock and,

while progress has been made so far ($400m in cost synergies + $100-200m in commercial

improvements), they still see room for EBITDA (excluding pricing tailwinds) to improve

by $2.0bn or 40% by 2030. Combined with a 7% EBITDA CAGR, a dividend yield of 3.8%

and potential for share buy-backs matching dividend payments, the return algorithm for

Smurfit WestRock remains strong.

Valuation

We value Smurfit WestRock using a blend of one-year forward EV/EBITDA (7.4x

EBITDA) and FCF yield valuation (6.5%). Our multiples take into account the historical

trading levels and adjust for our view on whether the segment/division is improving/getting

worse versus history. A simple average of the two valuation methodologies yields a 31 Dec-

27 target price of $71/share. We recommend being Overweight Smurfit WestRock and