Methanex: In-Line 2Q26 Results; Improving Balance Sheet Helps to Neutralize Normalizing Methanol Macro

研报英文原文证据摘录

Methanex: In-Line 2Q26 Results; Improving Balance Sheet Helps to Neutralize Normalizing Methanol Macro

Aaron Rosenthal, CFA AC North America Credit Research

(1-212) 270-4584 29 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

aaron.rosenthal@jpmorgan.com

restarted in July and is running at reduced operating rates. The Beaumont (TX) plant was

also taken offline in June to repair the cooling tower and was restarted in July (downtime

~30 days). The Titan plant (in T&T) had unplanned outages in 2Q and was indefinitely

idled (announced in late June).

OUR TAKE:

• A relatively advantaged outlook with bonds priced accordingly. MXCN’s 2Q26

results were in line overall despite some production constraints. We were pleased to see

the company deliver on stated deleveraging goals with the TL A repayment. Note the

indefinite idling of the Titan plant in Trinidad and Tobago was previously announced. The

company’s 3Q guidance commentary included, “Based on a lower realized price and

similar sales of produced methanol, we are expecting lower Adjusted EBITDA in the

third quarter,” while the slides noted, “some higher shipping and methanol-linked natural

gas costs inventoried in Q2 to flow through Q3.” MXCN’s 2026 production volume

guidance of ~9 million MT of methanol and ~300kt of ammonia was unchanged relative

to prior guidance. Current Street consensus for 3Q adj. EBITDA is meaningfully above

our estimate into the print (Street $467 million v. JPMe $385 million). On the call, we are

looking for additional details regarding global supply side considerations (Iran

production sustainability, China inventory depth and newbuild capacities) and

operational updates for MXCN assets across in Chile, New Zealand, and North America.

Methanex risk in the ~6% YTW context is indicative of fair value, in our view, and we