Noble Corp: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Despite Haircutting 2026 Outlook, Management Remains Sanguine on 2H26 Inflection

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Noble Corp: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Despite Haircutting 2026 Outlook, Management Remains Sanguine on 2H26 Inflection

floater demand at 95 rig years with all of this demand associated with markets 2025A 2026E 2027E

outside of Brazil. To that end, management believes it will be able to deliver some Q1 0.26 0.26A 0.08

Q2 0.13 0.01A 0.44

favorable contract news near-term, which could tie up some of its idle capacity in Q3 0.19 0.02 0.86

2026-27 (CEO Eifler mentioned the Black Rhino, Black Hawk, Viking, Stanley Q4 0.09 (0.00) 0.87

Lafosse, and Faye Kozack as potential candidates for these new awards). The FY 0.67 0.29 2.26

company believes that this tightening in the UDW market, which is now

Style Exposure

characterized by leading-edge dayrates in the mid-$400k/d vs. low-$400k/d earlier

this year, will support an earnings inflection consistent with its previous views in

2H27. One of the interesting takeaways from the company's semi-annual

assessment of the supply-demand balance in UDW markets was their observation

that demand trends are skewing more favorable in the Eastern Hemisphere (Asia-

Pacific, Africa) vs. the Western Hemisphere (GoA, Brazil). This suggests the

potential mobilization of one or more NE floaters that are currently in the GoA and

Brazil to more robust demand markets in Africa and the broader Asia-Pacific

region.

In our model, we assume the Faye Kozack and Stanley Lafosse commence follow-

on programs in 2Q27. We model the Viking working on back-fill contracts ahead

of its Brunei program at a low-to-mid $400k’s dayrate starting in 2Q27. We expect

both the BlackHawk and BlackRhino to start on firm terms by 2H27, with no

incremental work assumed for either rig this year. On net, we trim our 2026