Glencore PLC: First Take: major Marketing beat is key focus and driver of 2026 earnings upgrades. Copper Q2 production & costs small miss

研报英文原文证据摘录

Glencore PLC: First Take: major Marketing beat is key focus and driver of 2026 earnings upgrades. Copper Q2 production & costs small miss

Dominic O'Kane AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-6729 29 July 2026 C A Z E N O V E

dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Glencore PLC (Neutral; Price Target: 520p)

Investment Thesis

We are Neutral rated on Glencore. Glencore has unique exposure to coal and commodity

trading, which we expect will be key competitive advantages vs peers during current high

energy prices and commodity market volatility. That said, we remain cautious into near-

term reporting given cost inflation risks (notably sulphuric acid and diesel) which are most

acute in parts of the portfolio (e.g., African Copper), and could pressure margins and/or

guidance. Glencore has potential flexibility to return excess capital (including via

monetisation options around its Bunge stake following lock-up expiry). We believe

management has several strategic self-help options at its disposal to create value, but

Glencore’s copper growth pipeline would incur greater financing risks in a scenario of lower

copper prices.

Valuation

Our price target is based on an average of 0.9x P/NPV and SOTP multiples-based valuation,

valuing Industrial ex-Coal 7.0x EV/EBITDA, Coal 4.0x EV/EBITDA and Marketing 10.0x

EV/EBITDA. Our NPV uses a 10.5% WACC on Industrial and 8.0% on Marketing.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key upside/downside risks relate to:

• Higher/lower commodity prices, specifically copper and coal, which account for >50%

of GLEN’s EBITDA

• Stronger/weaker operating performance across key divisions, specifically copper and

coal

• Strong/weaker results and guidance at its H2’25 reporting and its Dec’25 CMD