Valterra Platinum Limited: First Take H1‘26 results: P&L, FCF, & net debt beat vs JPMe & strong dividend payout. 2026 guidance unchanged

研报英文原文证据摘录

Valterra Platinum Limited: First Take H1‘26 results: P&L, FCF, & net debt beat vs JPMe & strong dividend payout. 2026 guidance unchanged

Dominic O'Kane AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-6729 29 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Valterra Platinum Limited (Underweight; Price Target: 110,000c)

Investment Thesis

We are Underweight rated. Valterra Platinum is the world's #1 producer of platinum and

rhodium and #2 producer of palladium. We believe structurally lower demand for PGMs,

due to rising penetration rates of EVs, will drive lower EBITDA over the medium-long term.

Valterra was de-merged from Anglo American plc in June 2025 and we believe Valterra

should warrant a higher cost of capital following its separation from Anglo American plc.

Valuation

Our Dec’27 PT is based on a blended average of: 1.0x NPV (75% weighting); and 6.0x

2028E EV/EBITDA (25% weighting). Our NPV applies an 11.7% WACC (nominal) for SA

and Zimbabwe assets, which is in-line with the South African PGM peer group.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key upside risks to our rating and PT include:

• Platinum Group Metal prices: Higher PGM metal prices would be a key upside risk

to Valterra’s earnings, cash flow and valuation. This scenario could arise in a scenario

of higher global demand for ICE and hybrid autos.

• ZAR/US$: Valterra’s mines are located in South Africa and Zimbabwe, its cost base is

mainly denominated in ZAR and revenues in US$. A weaker ZAR/$ is positive for

operating margins short term, but can drive higher inflation long term.

• South Africa & Zimbabwe: SA accounts for >90% of Valterra’s EBITDA. SA has

carried a higher risk premium than other mining jurisdictions in recent years due to

political and regulatory risks.