Assessing Permian Risks

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Assessing Permian Risks

IdeaMdeclines in the Marcellus and Haynesville due to some pipeline maintenance.

The gas rig count is +2 over the past month, including +1 in the Haynesville

and remains above the level required to balance the market. Permian oil

activity is roughly flat this month after rising by +3 in June, and is up ~7%

since the start of the Iran conflict.

• Demand: LNG feedgas flows fell ~0.25 bcf/d month-over-month in July, while

total consumption excluding LNG and pipe imports/exports rose 0.5 bcf/d

year-over-year. Weather was near normal, with July cooling degree days

close to both the 10-year average and July '25 levels. Power burn was up 0.3

bcf/d (1%) y/y and +2.4 bcf/d (+5%) versus the five-year average. Residential

& commercial (ResCom) demand was -0.7 bcf/d (-8%) y/y and 0.4 bcf/d (5%)

below the five-year average, while industrial consumption was +0.7 bcf/d y/y.

° July LNG feedgas averaged ~18 bcf/d, down from ~18.3 bcf/d in June as

Freeport maintenance and slower Golden Pass commissioning offset

stronger flows at Corpus Christi and Calcasieu Pass. According to

Vortexa, Golden Pass Train 1 has exported five cargoes, including one on

July 27, but feedgas averaged only ~0.4 bcf/d – roughly half of its

expected run rate. Cheniere continues to target a fall start for Corpus

Christi Train 7, with FERC authorizing fuel gas and hot oil introduction on

July 17. Even so, LNG demand remained ~2.2 bcf/d above year-ago levels.

We now forecast ~3 bcf/d of y/y LNG feedgas growth in 2026, down

from ~3.6 previously. Our 2027+ LNG forecasts are largely unchanged.

Exhibit 1: July dry gas reached near- Exhibit 2: We trim our 2H26 forecast

record highs driven by a step higher in and continue to see downside risk to

Permian associated gas alongside the 2027