EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary: Oil - O‘Fs - Utilities - Infrastructure

研报英文原文证据摘录

EU Energy Sector Specialist Commentary: Oil - O‘Fs - Utilities - Infrastructure

Ian Mitchell - Specialist Sales - European Energy AC (44-20) 7134-1356 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 29 July 2026

SPM, ENI, SHEL/ARC, BP

Ian Mitchell

+44 207 134 1356

ian.e.mitchell@jpmorgan.com

Key Newsflow

• TODAY - ENI Q226

• TOMORROW - SHEL, SUBC, TE Q226

• CRUDE / EU GAS - front-end Brent closed -4.8% yesterday and is trading +3.7% this morning at $87.2/bbl, +3.1%

from the European close last night and -0.0% from this time yesterday morning. EU TTF Month Ahead gas closed -1% at

€57/MWh

• SPM - Looking Through the Near-Term Noise (research available). Shares fell ~9% following a challenging 2Q26 result

and a €150m reduction to FY26 EBITDA guidance, with the quarter itself also containing significant noise from weaker

Offshore Drilling profitability, an elevated tax rate, and one-off redundancy charges. Given that the principal headwinds

appear transitory and the underlying business remains intact, we view the ~9% decline as an attractive entry point and now see

~50% upside to our PT, with the proposed Subsea 7 combination remaining a meaningful source of longer-term catch-up

potential despite expected noise from Phase 2 reviews in several jurisdictions.

• ENI - Q226 in line operationally, CFFO 15% beat, FY26 guidance upgrades, SBB increased again, extraordinary

dividend planned. Solid Q2 numbers operationally, beat at CFFO. Multiple changes to guidance, all positive - 1) FY share

buyback raised to €3.4bn vs €2.8bn at Q1, extraordinary dividend expected to be defined in October and paid in Q4, 2) Price

assumptions: Brent $85/bbl, SERM $14/bbl, TTF Gas €50/MWh (vs. prev $83; $8; €50); 3) Group CFFO €15bn at Brent $85

(vs.