JPM | EMEA Spec Sits Daily: M&A 2026 Mid-Year Outlook; research - EZJ LN, SPM IM, ULVRLN

研报英文原文证据摘录

JPM | EMEA Spec Sits Daily: M&A 2026 Mid-Year Outlook; research - EZJ LN, SPM IM, ULVRLN

Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

29 July 2026

profitability and a weaker balance sheet. In our view regulatory hurdles (rather than financial) make an easyJet

acquisition unlikely in its current form for IAG or Air France-KLM. Lufthansa is more feasible, in our view,

although with question marks instead on execution, management bandwidth (given ITA and TAP), and willingness

to pay above and beyond Apollo’s 715p per share offer in a deal which has the ability to erode balance sheet comfort.

We would note that neither Lufthansa nor easyJet have publicly discussed potential M&A between them.

• Saipem -Looking Through the Near-Term Noise - Alejandra Magana here

• Saipem shares fell ~9% following a challenging 2Q26 result and a €150m reduction to FY26 EBITDA guidance, with the

quarter also containing significant noise from weaker Offshore Drilling profitability, an elevated tax rate, and one-off

redundancy charges. On Middle East risk, management maintained FY26 revenue and cash flow guidance and clarified

that the revised EBITDA outlook does not depend on a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The additional

~€70m assumed for 2H reflects a continuation of 1H disruption costs. Management expects a portion of the incremental

costs to be recovered through customer variation orders, albeit through a lengthy process and with any benefit more likely

to materialize in 2027. Beyond the Middle East, order momentum remains strong, with the commercial pipeline reaching

€63B. We view the ~9% decline as an attractive entry point and now see ~50% upside to our PT. JPM OW with

€5.95 PT.