3Q26 - Still Accelerating

研报英文原文证据摘录

3Q26 - Still Accelerating

data from the options market as of 28

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either Secular Growth: Positive

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE 1,270p BASE CASE 1,140p BEAR CASE 720p

Success in cloud drives LT growth Deriving benefits from heavy investment Recent momentum stalls, more product

investments

Adoption of Sage's cloud-native products Sage continues to drive strong growth on

(including Sage Intacct) accelerates, the back of its multi-year investment in its Sage struggles to sustain recent growth

allowing it to sustain a stronger growth product portfolio and go-to-market. momentum, with further investment into

profile than in our base case, while also Following the strong end to FY25, the product and sales and marketing required.

achieving a slightly higher long-term margin company continues to drive growth and This drives limited margin expansion in the

in the low-30s %. We assume Sage grows margin expansion, driven by strength in its next 2-3 years. Sage Intacct growth slows in

revenues at a c. 9% CAGR over FY26-29 and cloud-native and connected product North America due to the impact from

c. 5% CAGR in FY30-36. We apply a 2.5% portfolios. We forecast a c. 8.5% total competition, and internationalisation plans

terminal growth rate. Our bull case implies revenue CAGR over FY26-29, with organic stall. We model a c. 7% total revenue CAGR

c. 22x FY27e adj. P/E, c. 5x EV/Sales. margins gradually improving to c. 25% in over FY26-29 with margin expansion slower,

FY27. Terminal margins are c. 30%. Our base staying at c. 24% in FY27. Terminal margins