Centrus Energy: 2Q Preview: Updating Estimates & Lowering PT

研报英文原文证据摘录

Centrus Energy: 2Q Preview: Updating Estimates & Lowering PT

tensity to convert LEU to 2025A 2026E 2027E

HALEU, we no longer think a 4x HALEU premium (vs. LEU on a $/SWU Q1 1.68 1.05A 0.74

basis) is warranted. We now assume a 3x premium, stepping down to 2x by Q2 1.59 0.95 1.59

Q3 0.19 0.53 0.65

2033+, reflecting a more mature commercial market. Q4 0.79 1.87 1.92

• 2Q & Long-Term Expectations: On the quarter, we forecast similar topline FY 4.25 4.39 4.90

and gross margin ($149M and 26%, respectively), but lower operating income Style Exposure

as we expect outsized stock-based compensation typically incurred in 2Q,

consistent with the stock’s +228% appreciation from Jan-Dec 2025. Our

EBITDA and adj EPS estimates are $11M and $0.95, respectively (EBITDA

42% below consensus; adj EPS 4% above). Following finalization of the DOE

$900M award, we maintain our assumption that ~1/3 of Piketon capex is

reimbursed by the government beginning in 3Q. We adjust our model to reflect

this as a cash flow tailwind under “Other investing activities” (rather than an

income statement benefit). We expect further clarity on phasing/staging and

presentation in the upcoming earnings call and 10-Q. Longer term, our updated

LEU deck and lower HALEU premium imply a peak HALEU price of roughly

~$800/SWU around 2029, tapering toward ~2x LEU over time. This path has

downside if HALEU commercialization accelerates and the $/SWU premium

compresses faster, but upside if advanced reactor deployment is faster/more

aggressive than expected, tightening the market.

• Lowering our Dec-26 PT to $178: We use an equal-weighted 50/50 blend of

DCF and EV/’27 EBITDA (vs. 75/25 prior), reflecting the transition into a

more execution- and near-term return-focused phase as project work

progresses.