Kiniksa: The Path To Triple Digits Clearer After Continued Arcalyst Momentum And Positive KPL-387 Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Kiniksa: The Path To Triple Digits Clearer After Continued Arcalyst Momentum And Positive KPL-387 Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

29 July 2026

Kiniksa Overweight

KNSA, KNSA US

The Path To Triple Digits Clearer After Continued Price (28 Jul 26):$79.44

Arcalyst Momentum And Positive KPL-387 Update ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$107.00 Prior (Dec-26):$72.00

Yesterday, we hosted Kiniksa for a virtual investor group meeting post 2Q26

earnings. We wanted to pass on some quick nuggets from the meeting. SMid Biotechnology

Anupam Rama AC

• Net-net, our thesis is simple: we see - 1) continued Arcalyst commercial (1-212) 622-0900

momentum (majority of recurrent pericarditis (RP) TAM is untapped) anupam.rama@jpmorgan.com

and 2) de-risking of KPL-387 - driving KNSA shares to triple-digits as Joyce Zhou

both of these dynamics are better appreciated by the Street. (1-212) 622-7212

joyce.zhou@jpmorgan.com

• Importantly, with time, we do see the de-risking of KPL-387 (wholly- J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

owned) and RP market dynamics as having the potential to drive interest

from a wide investor base (there are no funding needs for the company).

Key Changes (FYE Dec)

• Kiniksa agreed with our assessment that the 300mg monthly dose of KPL-387 Prev Cur Δ

appears to be roughly efficacious relative to weekly Arcalyst (on key Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 2.03 1.90 -6.1%

assessments of time to treatment response, time to pain response, and time to

CRP normalization). Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

• On our call, the company highlighted the early onset of action and durability Adj. EPS ($) 2025A 2026E 2027E

of effect of KPL-387 over the monthly dosing interval (patients were in active Q1 0.11 0.27A 0.27

flare upon enrollment in the phase 2 study). Q2 0.23 0.30A 0.39

Q3 0.23 0.33 0.53