Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

al Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target Risk Reward Themes

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, Pricing Power: Positive

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 28 Self-help: Positive

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either Technology Diffusion: Positive

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE $425.00 BASE CASE $330.00 BEAR CASE $230.00

~26x 2027e EBITDA ~24x 2026e Base Case EBITDA ~19x 2026e Bear Case EBITDA

Iran conflict short lived. OI margins Incremental pricing offsets Iran related raw Multiple contracts as volume stalls and raws

accelerate as volume growth shifts higher material impacts. Volume impact from Iran inflation outpaces the ability to price the

and as the company outperforms its long- limited to ME, which is just 5% of sales. One conflict in Iran. Basic Industries headwind

term price algo after converting the 2026 Ecolab program hits its stride and volume gets worse given Iran. Healthcare recovery

energy surcharge to structural growth evolves to the 2%+ range on wallet flattens out. Distributor destocking goes

pricing. Ecolab volume outperforms behind share gains and a flattening out of the Basic deeper and longer than expected, offsetting

significant share gains and Basic Industries Industries/Paper drag (post macro). Cool-IT core Water growth. Data center opportunity

rebound post-Iran. Health Care recovery accelerates data center opportunity.